Football player props · UK bookmakers
No edge,
no bet.
Our model prices every starter's shots, shots on target and fouls won, then checks every UK bookmaker, all day. When a price gives us the edge, you get it before kick-off: the player, the book, the price, and what to do if he doesn't start. When it doesn't, we don't bet.
- Time-stamped before kick-off
- Losses on the record
- 18+ · free for now
A. Winger · Fouls won 1+
Home Town v Away United · Sat 15:00
Not in the XI? Cash out before kick-off.
The last 7 days
- 1,007,497bookmaker prices checked
- 9,456player lines priced
- 11UK bookmakers
- 63matches
- 4bets with the edge
That's the job: say no to almost everything. Most prices are fair. We wait for the few that aren't.
The edge
Like the house: we only play when the odds are on our side
A casino only opens a table when the odds favour the house. We only bet when the price favours us: the player's record says the bookie's price is too big.
- 01
The record sets a fair price
A player who hits the line in at least 8 of his last 10 starts. 9 in 10 means a fair price of about 1/9.
- 02
The bookie has to be well over it
At least 10% above fair at a UK book, seen in the last 30 minutes, and still good on a cautious estimate.
- 03
The line-up rule protects you
bet365 gives your stake back if he doesn't start; anywhere else, cash out before kick-off. Team news goes under every pick.
An edge shows over hundreds of bets, not one Saturday. And unlike a casino's, ours isn't guaranteed: it's an estimate, and some weeks the tin goes down. That's why every result goes on the record.
What's behind a pick
We run the desk. You get the slip.
What we run
- A pricing model built and paid for by a professional bettor, running every day
- Every starter's record, game by game, turned into a fair price for each line
- Every UK bookmaker's price, re-checked every few minutes
- A cautious-estimate check, so a lucky run doesn't fool it
- Line-up tracking, so early picks only go out where you're protected
- Every posted price compared with the bookie's closing price
What you get
Example layout
A. Winger · Fouls won 1+
Home Town v Away United · Sat 15:00
1/4 at the named bookmaker
Record 9/10 · fair 1/9 · stake 1u
Not in the XI? Cash out in full before kick-off.
One player, one price, one bookmaker, one rule. All of that machinery, boiled down to a slip you can act on in ten seconds.
The proof
Judge us on every pick
Posted before kick-off, settled from the official stats, never deleted. Wins and losses side by side.
1 unit = 1% of a betting pot. A paper record of the prices we posted, not money anyone won. Past results are no promise of future ones.
Who's behind the tin
A pro bettor you'll never see
Mispriced FC is run by a professional bettor who stakes seven figures a year on football and only bets with the edge. The model was built for that betting. Its picks are posted here, free for now.
Bookmakers restrict accounts that keep beating them and track people across devices and IP addresses, so the person behind it stays anonymous and the goblin does the talking. The method and the record are public: judge those.
Get the picks
Two ways in, both free for now
The morning email
On mornings with a wrong price: every line with the book, the price, the kick-off, the record and the line-up rule, plus every pick still running. Nothing on quiet days.
Get the emailsTelegram, first and live
Every pick lands here first, the moment it's found, with the team-news update under it: “he starts, let it ride” or “not starting, cash out now”.
Join @mispriced_fcStraight answers
Before you ask
Who runs Mispriced FC?
A professional bettor. Betting on football has been my full-time focus for years, at a volume that runs to seven figures of turnover a year (turnover is the total staked, not profit). Over that time I built my own software to price player markets and find the bookmakers' mistakes.
Mispriced FC is where those tools now point their findings in public. More on the about page.
Why don't you show your face?
Two reasons. Bookmakers restrict or close accounts that keep beating their prices, and they track people across accounts, devices and IP addresses. A face on social media makes that easy.
I also run other businesses in real life and keep them separate. So the gaffer and his tin do the talking. What you can check is the method and the record, which are both public.
Why give it away?
The tools already run every day for my own betting. Publishing what they find costs me little, it builds a public, time-stamped record, and it gives people a sensible way to bet: price-led, small stakes, no chasing. It's free for now.
Do you guarantee a profit?
No. Nobody can. A price can be wrong in our favour and still lose, and losing runs happen. The aim is to take better prices than the bookies should be offering, over hundreds of bets. Past results are no promise of future ones, and most people who bet lose over time.
Please don't treat betting as a way to make money or replace income.
Take the price, not the punt
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