How it works
No edge, no bet
Bookmakers price thousands of player lines every weekend: shots, shots on target, fouls won. They do it in bulk, and a bulk price can miss a player whose record is far better than his price. A casino only opens a table when the odds favour the house; we only bet when the price favours us. Here's exactly how we decide.
1. The record gives a fair price
We start with players who have hit the line in at least 8 of their last 10 starts. That hit rate is a chance, and a chance is a price.
Example. A winger has won at least one foul in 9 of his last 10 starts. That's a 90% record, so a fair price is about 1/9 (1.11): bet 9 to win 1. If a bookie offers 1/4 (1.25), that's more than the record says it's worth.
2. The price has to be well above fair
A line only goes out if a UK bookmaker offers at least 10% more than the fair price, the price was seen in the last 30 minutes, and it still looks good on a cautious estimate of the player's chance (not just the headline hit rate). Small edges aren't worth the risk, so they don't get posted.
3. The line-up rule: what if he doesn't start?
Line-ups come out about an hour before kick-off. If we post earlier, the post tells you exactly what happens at that bookmaker:
- bet365 gives your stake back if he doesn't start.
- Every other UK book (Coral, Ladbrokes, William Hill and the rest) does not. If he's not in the XI, cash out in full before kick-off.
The moment the team is announced, we post under every early pick: “HE STARTS: let it ride” or “NOT STARTING: CASH OUT NOW”.
4. Then we check ourselves against the close
Every pick is recorded at the price and time we posted it. After kick-off we compare it with the bookmaker's last price. Beating that closing price over time is the clearest sign the price really was wrong, win or lose on the day.
What we don't do
- No “locks”, no guarantees. Good prices still lose, sometimes several in a row.
- No personal tips, no accas, no bookie bonus links. We aren't paid by bookmakers.
- No deleting losers. Every pick stays on the record.